Review of China’s photovoltaic industry in 2021 and outlook for 2022

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      In 2021, my country's photovoltaic industry will continue to advance
      triumphantly. The output of photovoltaic modules has ranked first in the world
      for 15 consecutive years, the output of polysilicon has ranked first in the
      world for 11 consecutive years, the newly installed capacity has ranked first in
      the world for 9 consecutive years, and the cumulative installed capacity has
      ranked first in the world for 7 consecutive years. No. 1 in the world. In
      addition, rapid progress has been made in terms of output value and export. In
      2021, the output value of my country's photovoltaic manufacturing end
      (polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, modules) will exceed 750 billion yuan, the
      export value of photovoltaic products (silicon wafers, cells, modules) will
      exceed 28 billion US dollars, a record high, and the newly installed capacity
      will reach 54.88GW , Although lower than expected at the beginning of the year,
      it still reached a record high, surpassing 53GW in 2017, and the cumulative
      installed capacity exceeded 300GW; in 2021, the proportion of distributed
      installed capacity exceeded 50%.

      (1) The application market hits a record high

      In 2021, my country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity, distributed
      installed capacity, household installed capacity, and the proportion of
      distributed installed capacity in the total installed capacity will all hit
      record highs. my country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 54.88GW, a
      year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Among them, distributed installed capacity was
      about 29.28GW, accounting for 53.4% of all new installed capacity, breaking
      through 50% for the first time in history. In 2021, household installed capacity
      will reach 21.6GW, a year-on-year increase of 113.3%, accounting for 39.4% of my
      country's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2021. Photovoltaic power
      generation was 325.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%. The national
      utilization hours were 1163 hours, a year-on-year increase of 3 hours. The
      utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation was 98%, which was basically
      the same as that of the previous year. The photovoltaic consumption level in
      Xinjiang, Tibet and other places has increased significantly. The photovoltaic
      utilization rate increased by 2.8% and 5.6% respectively year-on-year.

      (2) Rapid expansion of manufacturing scale

      Despite the impact of unfavorable factors such as price fluctuations in the
      supply chain, complex and severe external environment, and uncertainties, the
      scale of my country's photovoltaic manufacturing sector will continue to expand
      rapidly in 2021. In 2021, my country's polysilicon output will reach 505,000
      tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, and silicon wafer output will be about
      227GW, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. The output of solar cells was 198GW, a
      year-on-year increase of 46.9%, the largest increase. Module output was 182GW, a
      year-on-year increase of 46.1%.

      (3) Industrial/technological development presents new features

      In terms of polysilicon, the production energy consumption has been
      significantly reduced. The average comprehensive power consumption of the
      industry has dropped to 63kWh/kg-Si, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and the
      average reduction power consumption is 46kWh/kg-Si, a year-on-year decrease of
      6.1%. The industrialization scale of granular silicon has expanded. Due to the
      improvement of production technology and the expansion of downstream
      applications, the market share of granular silicon will reach 4.1% in 2021, an
      increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. In addition, a number of new
      entrants have emerged in the industry, including Baofeng Energy planning 600,000
      tons of production capacity, Qinghai Lihao planning 200,000 tons of production
      capacity, Jiangsu Runyang planning 100,000 tons, Xinjiang Jingnuo planning
      100,000 tons, Hoshine Silicon Industry Planning 200,000 tons, etc., new entrants
      will not only inject more vitality into the industry, but also further intensify
      competition in the industry. In terms of silicon wafers, the development trend
      of large size and thinning is obvious. The combined proportion of silicon wafers
      with a size of 182mm and 210mm has increased to 45%; In addition, due to the
      increase in the size of the thermal field and the number of drawn rods, the
      feeding capacity of a single furnace for drawing rods will reach 2,800kg in
      2021, a significant increase of 47.4% year-on-year. In terms of batteries,
      n-type batteries are advancing faster, and companies have begun to deploy mass
      production lines; companies have strengthened vertical integration layouts: for
      example, Runyang has deployed silicon materials, Tongwei has deployed silicon
      wafers, Longi, Jinko, Trina, and JA Solar , Canadian Solar, Chint, etc. expanded
      cell production capacity; in addition, the average conversion efficiency of
      p-type PERC produced on a large scale reached 23.1%, an increase of 0.3
      percentage points year-on-year. In terms of components, the maximum power will
      be further increased from 600W in 2020 to 700W in 2021. The gap between leading
      enterprises and medium-sized enterprises will further widen. Perovskite has also
      triggered a round of investment boom. , GCL Optoelectronics completed a new
      round of financing of over 100 million yuan.

      (4) Leading enterprises have obvious advantages in scale

      In terms of industrial concentration, as a subdivision with a relatively low
      concentration in the past, the CR5 of the component market has increased from
      42.8% to 63.4%, the largest increase. The concentration of polysilicon and cells
      has not changed much, and the concentration of silicon wafers has declined. The
      gap between the leading enterprises in the component sector and the second-tier
      enterprises has further widened, and the development of polysilicon and cells
      has been balanced. For the silicon wafer sector, although the average output of
      the TOP5 has risen sharply, the output of non-TOP5 second-tier enterprises has
      also appeared rapid development, that is, the gap between leading companies and
      second-tier companies has narrowed, so CR5 has dropped. The scale advantage of
      leading enterprises is even more obvious. In the silicon wafer, battery wafer
      and module market, the average output growth rate of the top five enterprises in
      terms of production has exceeded 60% year-on-year, and the highest can reach
      67.4%. Although the increase in the average output of TOP5 polysilicon
      enterprises in 2021 is relatively low, compared to the situation in which the
      output of TOP5 enterprises in 2020 was less than 50,000 tons, the average output
      in 2021 exceeded 85,000 tons, and the growth rate of output of leading
      enterprises also increased. achieve faster growth.

      Baoxinda Energy Technology

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